The Daily Kill Sheet Picking Off Profits One Stock At A Time!

April 17, 2013

Daily Kill Sheet For April 17, 2013

Filed under: Advice,Industrial,Industrials,Shorts,Take Profits — Administrator @ 10:09 am

I am closing out my short position in Cummins Inc. (CMI, $108.15) for a 6.3% gain. These shares are very volatile, and with the markets beginning to look near-term oversold I want to cover here and look for an entry point after a bounce.

April 16, 2013

Daily Kill Sheet For April 16, 2013

Filed under: Advice,Industrial,Industrials,Shorts,Take Profits — Administrator @ 8:15 am

I am taking profits on two of our short positions here after yesterday’s big decline. With that said, I am closing out our 1/31 short on Kennametal (KMT, $36.17) with a 12.5% gain. I am also closing out my 3/21 short on Parker Hannifin (PH, $85.96) with an 8.5% gain. Both stocks have had solid declines and are trading near our short-term price targets, thus I will take profits off the table here.

March 6, 2013

Daily Kill Sheet For March 6, 2013

Filed under: Industrial,Long,Sure Shot Update!,Uncategorized — Administrator @ 1:29 pm

Just a quick update on our Deep Value position in Willbros Group (WG, $7.10). Willbros announced fourth-quarter earnings of $0.11 a share, $0.05 better than the consensus estimate. Revenues jumped 54% year over year. 

Management noted that their strategy to reduce the impact of seasonality in the businesses during the first and fourth quarters is proving successful as evidenced by improving top line and operating results. 
 
Backlog:
 
Willbros reported total backlog from continuing operations of $2.2 billion up approximately 7% from last year.  Twelve month backlog at the end of 2012 was $1.1 billion up over $240 million from December 31, 2011. 
 
Strategy: 
 
Key objectives in 2013 are to improve operating results and financial flexibility. They intend to improve performance through strengthening project management capabilities, bolstering training programs and adding work with more favorable terms and conditions to backlog. In addition, they expect to further reduce debt to strengthen the balance sheet.
 
Guidance:
 
Management now expects annual revenue to range from $1.9 to $2.1 billion, excluding the Hawkeye and Oman businesses, and debt reduction of $50-$100 million by the end of the year. The business model has experienced improved results in the first and fourth quarters year over year and they expect that trend to continue, with the strongest operating results in the second and third quarters.
At this juncture, we are up nearly 30% in the shares since our January recommendation. I recommend to continue to hold the shares here. The company remains well positioned to help build out the infrastructure necessary for the U.S. to continue to increase its oil and natural gas output. Energy security is a focus of this administration and it’s likely that oil and gas production will continue to increase regardless of the U.S. economic environment. With that said, the stock is volatile and with patience you should be able to increase your positions at prices below $6.50.

February 26, 2013

The Daily Kill Sheet For February 26, 2013

Filed under: Industrial,Industrials,Shorts,Take Profits,Uncategorized — Administrator @ 10:03 am

Time to take profits on our 1/25 Caterpillar Inc. (CAT, $88.80) short position. The shares have weakened substantially since reporting earnings on 1/31. Although the consensus estimate has dropped $0.59 a share over the past four weeks, it still remains well above my $6.50 estimate. Looking ahead, I expect estimates for the year to continue to fall. However, the stock is approaching its 200-day moving average and I am expecting a dead-cat bounce here. Thus, we will take a 7.1% return on our short position here and look to reshort the name on a bounce or break below the 200-day moving average.

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